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دراسة: الدساتير غير قابلة للحياة فى أفريقيا..الإنقلابات العسكرية ستستمر قبل وبعد الإنتخبات..!

أنباء انفو- توقعت دراسة فكرية نشرت حديثا، استمرار الإنقلابات العسكرية فى أفريقيا فترة طويلة  ، واعتبرت زيادة وتيرتها حاليا أمر طبيعي نتيجة استفحال الظلم فى بعض الدول الأفريقية والغبن الشديد  الذى لايمكن السكوت عليه .

الدراسة الجديدة استشهدت بالمقولة الخالدة التى كتبها المفكر ابن خلدون” الظلم مؤذن بخراب العمران”.

وذكرت الدراسة ، أن الانقلابات التي لا تتوقف في أفريقيا تفرض على المهتم برصدها ومتابعتها بهدف تحليل أسبابها وبواعث انطلاقها، إعادة النظر في فكر  ابن خلدون ، ورؤيته لقيام العمران البشري وسقوطه.

لقد فسّر ابن خلدون،  كيف تصل الدول إلى الظلم الطاغي وآثار هذا الظلم ومآلاته على الفرد والمجتمع، في مقدمته الشهيرة، وإذا كانت معظم الدول الأفريقية تمر بأزمات عاصفة مزلزلة، فإن استبداد الأنظمة الحاكمة بشعوبها، بالتوازي مع تبعيتها وانبطاحها للخارج إلى حد “العمالة”، ربما يكون “كلمة السر”؛ المفارقة المحزنة في هذه البلاد أن الديموقراطية لم تثبت نجاعتها، والديكتاتورية لم تكن دائماً شراً، إنه وضع تنفرد به أفريقيا قارة العجائب والمتناقضات الصارخة، ما يعني أن الأزمة في بدايتها وكل الاحتمالات واردة!

لقد ظلت الانقلابات العسكرية في القارة السمراء حدثاً منتظماً في دولة ما بعد الاستقلال، بمعدل أربع محاولات سنوياً، ما بين عامي 1960 و2000، ومنذ 2017 حتى الآن تصاعد الأمر بشكل ملفت، وخلال العامين الماضيين حدثت ستة انقلابات بدول وسط وغرب أفريقيا، آخرها النيجر والغابون. قادة الانقلاب من العسكريين الشبان، يهيمن على خطاباتهم “العداء للغرب”، وفرنسا خاصة، بوصفها “المحتل القديم”، الذي لا يزال يتحكم في رؤساء هذه البلدان، ويسخرهم لخدمة مصالحه الخاصة، ولو على حساب مصالح أبناء الشعوب الذين يعانون ظروفاً بائسة برغم تمتع دولهم بثروات وقدرات هائلة، لا يستفيدون هم منها استفادة حقيقية، بل الغرب والشرق اللذان يتصارعان على أرض أفريقيا ويعبثان بحكامها، وربما كان هذا الصراع على ثروات القارة سبباً غير مباشر، لكنه أساسي في توالي الانقلابات.

اللافت أن موسى فقيه، رئيس مفوضية الإتحاد الأفريقي، عبر عن قلقه من “عودة التغييرات غير الدستورية للحكومات الأفريقية”. قلق المسؤول الأفريقي من انتهاك “الدستور”، يظهر أن الدستور يُحترم في ربوع أفريقيا، وهو استنتاج لا يقوم عليه دليل. الدستور لا يحيا هناك، لا قبل الانقلاب ولا بعده، يُنتهك بلا هوادة في الحالتين، إنها المأساة الأفريقية.

يوضح ابن خلدون أن كل دولة تنتقل بين خمسة أطوار، هي:  الانفراد بالمجد، ثم الفراغ والدعة، ثم طور القنوع والمسالمة، ثم الإسراف والتبذير. ولا يرى ابن خلدون قياماً للحياة الاجتماعية إلا بالدولة؛ فمهمة الدولة حماية المجتمع وأفراده، والمجتمع هو أساس الدولة.

ولذلك لا يمكن اعتبار الانقلاب على السلطة في أي دولة حدثاً بسيطاً، بل مركب، بمعنى لا يمكن إرجاعه إلى سبب وحيد، بل تتضافر عدة أسباب معاً، في ظروف ما ولحظة ما، لتهيئة الطقس للاشتعال الذاتي؛ ومن ثمّ الانفجار المدوي، بدءاً من ظلم الحكام واستبدادهم وفسادهم وانفرادهم بالسلطة والمال، لفترات تبدو بلا نهاية، حتى يشيخوا على مقاعدهم، بينما الشعوب تئن تحت وطأة فشلهم في التنمية ومستويات الفقر المرعبة وتخلف الخدمات.

ولو أنعمنا النظر إلى الدول الأفريقية التي مرت أخيراً بانقلابات متتالية، للاحظنا جملة من القواسم المشتركة، أبرزها: تبعية الأنظمة للخارج، غياب الديموقراطية والتداول السلمي للسلطة، الأزمة الاقتصادية والمعيشية الخانقة على نحو مفزع، وتهتك النسيج الوطني على وقع الاختلافات الإثنية والثقافية وغيرها… وعلى سبيل المثال:

فإن الأزمة المادية والاجتماعية التي تضرب الطبقة المتوسطة وتآكل المكاسب المادية التي حصلت عليها الفئات الشعبية لسنوات عديدة، كلها عوامل تؤدي بلا شك إلى إضعاف شرعية النظم القائمة، وتفتح الطريق أمام المزيد من القلاقل التي تزعزع الاستقرار السياسي والاقتصادي.

يرى الدكتور محمود عبد الفضيل، في كتابه “التشكيلات الاجتماعية والتكوينات الطبقية في الوطن العربي”، أنه مع تفاقم أزمة عجز الموازنة العامة للدولة في معظم هذه البلدان وارتفاع أعباء الدين الخارجي، عادة ما يكون الطريق نحو جدولة الديون الخارجية مصحوباً باتباع توصيات “صندوق النقد” التي تدفع إلى ضغط الإنفاق الحكومي ورفع الدعم وإلغاء الخدمات المجانية، كالتعليم… إجراءات تقود إلى تصفية مكاسب الطبقات الشعبية، وتضعها وجهاً لوجه في مواجهة الأزمة الاقتصادية دون مظلة واقية.

وفي ظل هذه التطورات يصعب على النظم الحاكمة القائمة الحفاظ على وجودها ومزاياها، دون اشتداد درجة القمع والاستبداد السياسي، وتصفية ما تبقى من حريات وقنوات التعبير.

معنى ذلك غياب الدولة الكامل في مجال التوجيه الاقتصادي وحضورها الشديد في مجال القمع السياسي. وفي مواجهة التردي المتوقع للأوضاع الاقتصادية والسياسية تتبلور وتظهر قوى اجتماعية وسياسية جديدة حاضنة لمشروع التغيير الذي يسعى من أجل هدفين:

أولاً تصحيح وتصويب علاقة التبعية بين الاقتصاد والعالم الخارجي، ثانياً الانحياز لمصالح الجماهير العريضة عن طريق العدل الاجتماعي وتطوير قوى الإنتاج الذاتية لتحقيق التنمية المستقلة؛ وفقاً لما سماه ابن خلدون قيام “عصبية جديدة”؛.

إذ يرى أن الفئات الحاكمة التي تنفرد بـ”المجد والملك” لا تستطيع الاستمرار في الحكم بالاعتماد على قوة القهر والجنود والمرتزقة، بل يكون مصيرها المحتوم الإنهيار وقيام عصبة أخرى باستلام السلطة.

ويشير الدكتور محمد عابد الجابري في كتابه “العصبية والدولة” إلى أن العصبية لا تلعب دورها التاريخي الذي يعزوه لها ابن خلدون إلا إذا توافر الشرطان الضروريان: وجود عصبية عامة جامعة لعصبيات متفرقة، ووقوع الدولة في طور الهرم.

وتدخل الدولة طور الهرم عندما يذهب الاستبداد إلى أقصى مداه، وعندما يعمد الحكام إلى الإكثار من الضرائب والمغارم نتيجة الأزمة الاقتصادية المحتومة التي يتسبب فيها تجاوز النفقات للمداخيل.

وهكذا فإن نجاح عصبية جديدة في شق طريقها إلى السلطة مشروط بعجز الدولة عن المسير، وهو العجز الذي يصيبها في آخر مرحلة من طور هرمها، والذي تصبح بسببه “كالذبال إذا فنى زيته”.

“إن وقوع الدولة في مرحلة الهرم يؤدي حتماً إلى انحلال قواها المادية والمعنوية، وبالتالي عجزها عن مقاومة القوى الخارجة عليها؛ فتصبح هكذا فريسة لأقوى العصبيات الثائرة المطالبة”.

وعندما تثور الجماهير الحانقة من الظلم والاستئثار، مطالبة بحقوقها، غالبا ما تلجأ “النخبة المترفة” من الحكام، المثقلة بالمال والقوة المسلحة، إلى مهاجمة الجماهير بالسلاح أو طلب العون من القوى الخارجية التي بدورها تجد في مثل هذه الأنظمة مصلحة سياسية في استمرارها وبقائها وقهرها لشعوبها؛.

يقول ابن خلدون “فإذا جاء المطالب لهم (أي إذا قامت الثورة عليهم)، لم يُقاوموا مدافعته، فيحتاج صاحب الدولة حينئذ إلى الاستظهار بسواهم من أهل النجدة، ويستكثر من الموالي (القوى الخارجية)، ويصطنع من يُغني عن أهل الدولة بعض الغناء، حتى يتأذن الله بانقراضها، فتذهب الدولة بما حملت.

ولو نظرنا نظرة مستقبلية إلى أقوى الفئات (العصبيات) الثائرة على حد التعبير الخلدوني، نجد أنها في الغالب كانت من قبل منضوية في عصبية الدولة، كضباط بالجيش، فهذه العصبيات هي التي تملك القوة والجرأة على الثورة لكون أصحابها قد شاركوا في الحكم واستفادوا منه خبرة و”أموالاً وأنصاراً”، أو تياراً قومياً أو انتماء قبلياً أو مناطقياً.

توقع ابن خلدون أن الزعيم الجديد، وبعد أن يستقر له الأمر ويمسك بالزمام، يعمل على إطاحة من عاونوه على الوصول إلى كرسي السلطة، واستبدالهم بآخرين، لا ينازعونه الأمر والنهي.

فإذا تخلص الحاكم المستبد من أعوانه المقربين لم يشعر بالأمن – على حد تعبير ابن خلدون – بل على العكس، سرعان ما ينتابه القلق والخوف على مستقبل حكمه، واستمرار عرشه، ولا يجد أمام هذه المعضلة إلا أن يقطع رؤوس مخالفيه، ويستهزئ بهم، ويقصيهم بكل وسيلة ليبقى وحده دون منازع.

ومن هنا نبدأ في حلقة جديدة من حلقات الاستبداد والنضال ضد الاستبداد.

إنها “دائرة الشر الجهنمية” التي تكتوي الشعوب بنيرانها المتأججة، ولا سبيل للخلاص منها إلا بالسقوط الحر لأسبابها، وعلى رأسها: الظلم والتخلف والفقر والفساد والهشاشة أمام النفوذ الخارجي، وأن تصبح خيرات الأوطان لكل أبنائها، لا لطائفة دون غيرها، وهو الأمر الذي لا يزال بعيداً في القارة السمراء!

 

– أنباء انفو-  “النهار” العربي

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